It seems a virtual certainty now that an election is upon us. Soon party insiders will be awaiting daily tracking polls the way I anticipate the hockey scores. They’ll also be planning, scheming and spinning the public looking for every possible vote. So what can we expect over the next five weeks?
The Conservatives appear to be sitting pretty. They have a significant lead in the polls and an uncanny ability to grow their vote once the writ is dropped. In fact, there hasn’t been an election since 2004 that the Tories haven’t increased their support as the campaign unfolded. Given that they are starting near majority territory at 38 per cent, their momentum may be unstoppable.
Prognosis: VicTory. Campaigns matter but if the election were held today, the Conservatives would be on track to win between 145 and 160 seats.
Why the Liberals would want a campaign now is a mystery. Michael Ignatieff is hands down the least popular federal leader in Canada. The Liberals are consistently below 28 per cent in the polls and have lost support during every election campaign since 2004. The Grits are hoping that Tory scandals will eat away at Harper’s leadership numbers and perhaps deflect from the Conservatives’ reputation as good stewards of the economy. According to recent polls, the Grits appear to be on the right side of the F-35, corporate tax cut and health care issues.
But will that be enough?
Prognosis: Iffy. Most Liberals hope that Ignatieff will exceed low expectations and somehow hold Harper to a minority. But doesn’t it say volumes about the current state of the Liberal party that it would consider 100 seats a moral victory?
The NDP enters the campaign with mixed expectations. On the one hand, a Liberal collapse could give it what it’s dreamed of for decades — official opposition status. But is that likely given recent by-elections where the NDP was squeezed aside in the battle between the Grits and Tories? With support averaging only 17 per cent, the NDP’s will likely target their resources to seats they currently hold or where they ran a close second last time.
Prognosis: Jackpot? Probably not. Current projections predict only 30-40 NDP seats. Not likely enough to hold the balance of power.
The Bloc Quebecois has the most experienced and well-liked leader in Quebec: Gilles Duceppe. Averaging about 40 per cent support in the province should reap a plentiful harvest of seats. They held 51 of the 75 ridings last time but hope to increase their totals by targeting key Tory ridings in the Quebec City region. If Liberal support fades, watch for the BQ to direct their fire at the island of Montreal — especially Papineau, home of Liberal star candidate Justin Trudeau.
Prognosis: Duceppetively simple. Somewhere between 45 and 55 seats.
As for the Greens, it’s all about Elizabeth. The primary goal of the party is to win a seat in parliament and the most promising prospect is Saanich Gulf Islands where May will run against Conservative Gary Lunn. One local poll showed May within striking distance but it remains to be seen if the Green leader can unseat a Conservative cabinet minister. Party polling numbers are inconsistent, dipping to below five per cent or reaching as high as 10 per cent nationally.
Prognosis: Will Elizabeth be gathering seats in May?
She may.
In the end there’s only one thing we know for sure.
On Election Day, the best laid plans of at least one of the parties will go awry. And therein lies the drama and the fun.
Happy Silly Season everyone.
— Ray Smit is a humour columnist from Parksville. Watch for his Silly Season columns should the writ be dropped.